US Presidential Election Cycles


In addition to the standard and weighted average seasonal patterns on all our charts, we also pay close attention to the 4 year Presidential election cycle and the impact it has on our markets. Each of the 4 years are very different as illustrated by the S&P 500 example below.  

S&P 500 4 Year Election cycle
2020 is a Election year and as a result we have added the average movement during election years (purple line), to a selection of key markets below. The characteristics of election years means that some markets will out-perform their usual seasonal patterns, while some will under-perform. The markets in this section will allow you to prepare for the typical election movement in currency markets, stocks and commodities.

Election years typically see weaker performing stock markets (see blue line in graph above) and a stronger performing US Dollar.

US Dollar Index seasonals & Election year cycle
US Dollar index election cycle chart

S&P 500 seasonals & Election year cycle
S&P 500 election cycle pattern

Crude Oil seasonals & Election year cycle
Crude Oil election cycle pattern

Euro seasonals & Election year cycle
Euro election cycle chart

British Pound seasonals & Election year cycle
British pound election cycle chart

Australian Dollar seasonals & Election year cycle
Australian Dollar election cycle chart

Japanese Yen seasonals & Election year cycle
japanese yen election pattern
Gold seasonals & Election year cycle
Gold election cycle chart

Silver seasonals & Election year cycle
Silver election cycle pattern

US 10-Year Note seasonals & Election year cycle
10 Year note election year cycle