US Presidential Election Cycles

 

In addition to the standard and weighted average seasonal patterns on all our charts, we also pay close attention to the 4 year Presidential election cycle and the impact it has on our markets. Each of the 4 years are very different as illustrated by the S&P 500 example below.  

S&P 500 4 Year Election cycle


2019 is a 'Pre-Election' year and as a result we have added the movement of Pre-Election years (purple line) to a selection of key markets below.The characteristics of pre-election years means that some markets will out-perform their usual seasonal patterns and some will under-perform. The markets in this section will allow you to prepare for pre-election movement in currency markets, stocks and commodities. These years are typically very positive for stocks, with pre-election years historically boasting returns, that consistently outperform the long term average.

US Dollar Index seasonals & Pre-election cycle
US Dollar index election cycle chart
 

S&P 500 seasonals & Pre-election cycle
S&P 500 us election pattern
 

Crude Oil seasonals & Pre-election cycle
Crude oil US election pattern
 

Euro seasonals & Pre-election cycle
Euro election cycle chart
 

British Pound seasonals & Pre-election cycle
British pound election cycle chart
 

Australian Dollar seasonals & Pre-election cycle
Australian Dollar election cycle chart
  

 
Japanese Yen seasonals & Pre-election cycle
japanese yen election pattern
  
 
Gold seasonals & Pre-election cycle
Gold election cycle chart