Market Seasonality


Seasonality is the study of a market over time to establish if there is a regular and predictable change that occurs within that markets price every calendar year. Every market experiences periods of either greater supply or demand throughout a year, and it is these forces that drive seasonal patterns. Seasonality allows us to establish these periods to give us an indication ahead of time how a market could perform in the near future.  

Use our Performance heat map below to find the largest historical seasonal moves each month and then navigate to that markets seasonal chart in our members area. This will allow you to see its full seasonal pattern and identify the best time to enter and exit a trade. 

Remember, a seasonal pattern gives us a bias for a market but this should be backed up with our CoT data to give the best signals.   

Monthly Performance Heat Map

This heat map shows the average historical % change in price each month. Use the map as a starting
point to find the biggest movers each month before then checking out the complete seasonal pattern
for those markets in our seasonal charts data base. To access seasonal chart data base, log on here
(Percentages updated for 2020)
Monthly performance heatmap for Currencies, stocks, Gold, Crude and commodities
Our members have access to the Seasonal charts (Just like British Pound example below) for over 40 major markets and are extremely powerful when combined with our CoT data. E.g. If a markets seasonal pattern indicates a price rally is possible in the coming months and we can see strong buying is taking place in that market through our CoT data, it is a very good indication that its seasonal pattern will ring true again this calendar year.

Our seasonal charts database is one of the most complete available online, with charts containing more history and more up-to-date markets than anywhere else. Our charts also contain our very own unique 'weighted average seasonal pattern', which we created to help monitor the the changing characteristics of each market over time. It is based on the study of each market over 4 time periods (where data allows), 5 years, 10 years, 20 years, and the complete available history.

An average is then taken from these 4 periods, creating a seasonal average that is more weighted and responsive to the price movement in recent years. By doing this we can see if a markets seasonal pattern is changing over time and if so, ensure our trading evolves with that market. Looking at any market over just one time period in isolation, can be very misleading.

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British Pound - Seasonal chart example

GBP's is a market like many others that has repeatable patterns within a calendar year, from its strength in April to its weakness in August, time and time again the regularity of this pattern will surprise you. The tendency for the British pound is to be weak at the beginning of the year only to start a fight back in mid March through to the end of April/beginning of May. A second pattern often sees the currency rally strongly in July before experiencing weakness in August. GBP has been negative for the month of August, 10 out of the past 12 years. 
British Pound seasonal chart
All time seasonal pattern (Blue line) Weighted average seasonal pattern (Yellow line).
Log in to read more about both patterns

Our Seasonal Charts database includes all of the following markets and also provides seasonal analysis of select markets for the US Presidential election cycle. 2019 is a Pre-Election year and we have therefore added the Pre-Election seasonal patterns to these charts. Details of which select markets in the table below.
Currencies   Stock Indices Energies Softs
Euro S&P 500 Crude Oil Coffee
British Pound Dow 30 Heating Oil Cocoa
US Dollar Index        Nasdaq 100              Natural Gas       Sugar
Australian Dollar Nikkei Gasoline Cotton
New Zealand Dollar DAX   Lumber
Canadian Dollar CAC Metals     Orange Juice    
Japanese Yen   Gold  
Mexican Peso US Sectors Silver Grains
Swiss Franc   Con' Discretionary   Platinum Wheat
  Con' Staples Palladium Corn
Presidential cycles Energy Copper Oats
US Dollar Index Financials   Rough Rice
Euro Healthcare Treasurys Soybeans
British Pound Industrials 10-Year     Soybean Meal    
Australian Dollar Materials 5-Year Soybean Oil
Japanese Yen Utilities US - Bond  
S&P 500 Technology    

To access the full list of Seasonal chart patterns in our members area please Log on
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